After getting in an argument this weekend over the same issue, I want to continue the debate about the 2006 Massachusetts Governor’s Race here. Can Willard Romney retain the position or will Tom Reilly or some other Democrat take back the job after a decade-plus Republican reign?
My take is….
Romney can win if:
a.) Massachusetts residents keep their heads up their asses.
b.) The Democratic nominee is a pussy, and/or the Democratic leadership in the state doesn’t care about the race, like they didn’t in 2002.
c.) He again convinces the voters that he is a pro-business moderate Republican, even though he is actually a far Right-wing social conservative.
d.) Business interests back him. This might not happen, given Romney’s opposition to stem cell research; the biotech and medical industries might take him on (Say goodnight, Mitt).
e.) He distances himself from the Repug Party nationally. Going to be tough, because he can’t afford to be seen as a Bush cheerleader, but he also needs to retain Party favor for a run in 2008.
f.) He promises not to run for the Presidency in 2008. This might fuck him over during the 2008 Repug primary if he actually does run. Someone like Frist will crucify him for a lie like that, especially since it will be recorded and replayed over and over.
Romney can lose if:
a.) Democrats successfully show, and it will be easy, that Romney plans to leave the Commonwealth for a run at the White House and leave totally useless Kerry Healey at the helm. This time it won’t be a mediocre Argeo Cellucci leaving a more mediocre Jane Swift to run the state. Kerry Healey is unknown, horrendous in public, lacking experience, unfriendly, mostly brain-dead, an enemy to public education, and worst of all, thinking she is entitled. The Dems will do well to run a strong campaign directed against Healey.
b.) Romney aligns himself with the Repugs nationally, and Bush in particular. People are still pissed about pretty much everything Bush has done and may take it out on any Republican candidate, even if they voted for Weld and Cellucci in the past. Beware the Bush backlash.
c.) The Democratic candidate attacks and shows how far Right Romney really is (this might only take a short explication of Mormonism during a debate) .
d.) The Dems in the State House, now led by a real liberal, join the fight unlike they did when the fascist and moderate conservative Finneran was running the show.
e.) Howard Dean directs some national power to the race. Massachusetts Dems usually don’t need the DNC’s help, but money flowing in from NY and CA might hurt Romney.
f.) A well-liked, smart as hell, and tough-as-nails Democrat like Tom Reilly comes out swinging. Shannon O’Brien was a weak candidate because she was relatively unknown, she looked like a bitch if she was tough, and she looked like a fool if she was nice. Romney will get the deathblow if he doesn’t come out as the Golden Boy in the debates.
I’m probably being too optimistic……oh well.